Alts are tied to BTC and for now BTC will follow the Dow, why? Because the DJI is a direct reflection of the health of the economy. In a bad economy we can see that institutional money pulls out of crypto as well. If things continue to be this bad we will see the capitulation of some lesser-known Altcoins. Let me give you some perspective as to what has happened over the last few weeks so you can appreciate the magnitude of this event. Let’s look at the Dow and how some major events have influenced the health of the economy. Also, remember that in the end, we will bounce back from this, maybe faster than any other time before.
Let’s look at these key events; The market crash of 87, September 11, 2001, and the housing market crash. As you can see so far this event is as big as the 1987 crash but with the main difference, that this event is not even close to over yet.
On BTC we’ll look at how COVID-19 influenced crypto while China was fighting the spread vs once the virus made it to the U.S.
What does this chart tell us? A lot, you can see that the bulk of the money is in the United States and it comes from major institutions. How does this info help? Easy, bad news out of the U.S. will influence negatively so be ready, bad or good news out of China does influence but not as much. When the U.S. recovers the crypto market will bounce hard.
WHAT’S BTC DOING NOW?
BTC truly had to jump over the 200MA in the weekly chart in a hurry to stop a meltdown. We went below this benchmark and closed under it once last week. The 200MA is a very crucial line and currently we are playing with fire and this asset class knows it, it is obvious that the powers that be pushed the price up in a hurry to close above the 200MA (that’s how important this is) We are currently above the thin red line which was our next obstacle, we’ll keep moving up but it is hard to see us going further than the thick red line.
WHERE IS THE DOW HEADED?
It seems like we still have some more events to go through. We have yet to find out how bad the coronavirus has influenced the U.S. We are expecting the job reports, Also the end of Q1 and Q2 (quarterly reports.) It is expected that most companies will post massive losses. All of this will send the Dow lower in the next few weeks which will influence the direction BTC will take.
If we keep closing above the 50MA (the yellow line) here in the 6 hour chart there’s a good chance we’ll try to reach the 200MA (the white line above.)